During the early phases of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Italy, real-time modeling analysis were conducted in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic. In order to evaluate the results obtained by the model we compared simulated epidemics to the estimated number of influenza-like illness (ILI) collected by the Italian sentinel surveillance system (INFLUNET), showing a good agreement with the timing of the observed epidemic. By assuming in the model mitigation measures implemented in Italy, the peak was expected on week 44 (95% CI: 44, 45). Results were consistent with the INFLUNET data showing that the peak in Italy was reached in week 46. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy makers for planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic.

Evaluation of model prediction during the early phase of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Italy

Rizzo C
2011

Abstract

During the early phases of the 2009 influenza pandemic in Italy, real-time modeling analysis were conducted in order to estimate the impact of the pandemic. In order to evaluate the results obtained by the model we compared simulated epidemics to the estimated number of influenza-like illness (ILI) collected by the Italian sentinel surveillance system (INFLUNET), showing a good agreement with the timing of the observed epidemic. By assuming in the model mitigation measures implemented in Italy, the peak was expected on week 44 (95% CI: 44, 45). Results were consistent with the INFLUNET data showing that the peak in Italy was reached in week 46. These predictions have proved to be a valuable support for public health policy makers for planning interventions for mitigating the spread of the pandemic.
Ajelli, M; Pugliese, A; Merler, S; Declich, S; Rizzo, C
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: http://hdl.handle.net/11568/1143010
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