Influence of climate change on extreme values of rainfall

The evaluation of the impact of climate change on extremes is a crucial issue for the resilience of infrastructures and buildings and is a key challenge for adaptation planning policy. In this paper, a suitable procedure for the definition of future trends of precipitation extremes at local scale is presented. Starting from the output of Regional Climate Models, a new weather generator have been implemented to derive factor of changes for daily maximum precipitation considering the different sources of uncertainty affecting climate projections (emission scenarios, global climate model, internal variability). An ensemble of six different climate models have been analyzed and the results are presented for the Italian Mediterranean region proving the ability of the method to define factors of change for climate extremes as well as to assess their evolution in time, also allowing a sound estimate of the uncertainty range associated with different models.