Assessing the risk of disregarding urgent maintenance interventions on waterways infrastructures

We propose a method for the prioritization of maintenance interventions already classified as urgent on waterways infrastructures, and especially locks. The method is based on the risk of the realization of a failure scenario due to damage processes. The probability of failure is computed by modelling the damage evolution as a stochastic process; the consequences which are considered are: additional cost of repairing after failure, number of fatalities, and the rate of lost customers upon an interruption of the lock service. Since quantifying all the consequences in economic terms could be difficult if not impossible, another approach is applied, which allows the aggregation of the consequences expressed in different scales. The suggested procedure, which has its roots in the probability applied to engineering, aims at supporting the planning of maintenance interventions on waterways infrastructures when resources and investment are limited.