Prediction of R.C. bridge deterioration under changing environmental conditions

Climate change affects the reliability and durability of r.c. structures both increasing the magnitude and the frequency of extreme events and accelerating the rate of degradation processes such as carbonation and corrosion. In the paper, bridge deterioration models are presented and discussed with the aim to extend their application to structures exposed to changing environmental conditions over their life cycle. The evaluation of transition probabilities in Markov and semi-Markov model, which is generally carried out by means of inspection data, is integrated with data derived by mechanistic-empirical models describing the deterioration of r.c. structures. Existing models for chloride induced corrosion, corrosion propagation and cracking are considered, introducing in the analysis the expected variations of temperature and atmospheric humidity. Results in terms of predicted deterioration curves are presented and discussed for a case study highlighting the influence of the expected changes in environmental conditions under different climate change scenarios.