This paper presents a high-resolution PyPSA-based model to explore the evolution of the Italian power system by 2040. A structured methodology is adopted to assess uncertainty through scenario analyses, based on PNIEC and DDS policy documents and a literature review on uncertainty in energy modelling. The model is validated against 2019 historical data and a 2040 baseline scenario. It then evaluates outcomes from discrete scenarios varying in demand, fuel prices, technology availability, and emission targets. Results show that nuclear generation remains economically unattractive, while biomass can play a key role under strict emission constraints. Net-zero scenarios by 2040 appear infeasible due to unrealistic hydrogen deployment and result in high electricity prices, unlike scenarios with lower fossil fuel prices.
Exploring Uncertainties in Future Power Systems: Methodology and Analysis for Italy 2040
Pampado, Alessandro;Fioriti, Davide;Poli, Davide
2025-01-01
Abstract
This paper presents a high-resolution PyPSA-based model to explore the evolution of the Italian power system by 2040. A structured methodology is adopted to assess uncertainty through scenario analyses, based on PNIEC and DDS policy documents and a literature review on uncertainty in energy modelling. The model is validated against 2019 historical data and a 2040 baseline scenario. It then evaluates outcomes from discrete scenarios varying in demand, fuel prices, technology availability, and emission targets. Results show that nuclear generation remains economically unattractive, while biomass can play a key role under strict emission constraints. Net-zero scenarios by 2040 appear infeasible due to unrealistic hydrogen deployment and result in high electricity prices, unlike scenarios with lower fossil fuel prices.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.
