Time-dependent Fragility Curves for the Seismic Risk Analysis of Reinforced Concrete Buildings subjected to Degradation

The buildings and construction sector are responsible for 37% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, with most coming from operational carbon emissions. Embodied emissions from design, production, and deployment of construction materials add to this, raising the question of whether to demolish or maintain existing buildings. This question is particularly crucial in high-seismicity areas, such as Italy, where existing buildings lack seismic design. Furthermore, current Italian evaluation criteria only qualitatively assess the conservation status of buildings. In this context, the paper proposes an approach to develop time-dependent fragility curves for reinforced concrete frame systems, incorporating degradation phenomena and factoring in future CO2 concentration levels. The approach aims to offer a more accurate assessment of seismic physical vulnerability, promoting sustainable and cost-effective building management.