From Fragments to Systems: Mapping Urban Spatial Potential for X-Minute City Planning

In contemporary urban planning, fragmented suburban contexts and limited public resources require operational tools able to identify where public spaces and facilities can be introduced with limited conflict, cost, and land consumption. This paper proposes a parcel-based computational decision-support framework for mapping urban spatial potential in X-minute city planning. Taking cadastral parcels as the elementary unit of transformation, the model evaluates land suitability for two distinct targets – open public spaces and built public facilities – through a multi-criteria structure addressing morphology, regulatory framework, ownership and accessibility issues, lot coverage and uses, environmental and landscape constraints. The framework is applied to the suburban area of Massa (Italy), a heterogeneous territory characterized by strong spatial fragmentation, low service provision, and high dependence on private mobility. These conditions make it a particularly relevant testing ground for proximity-based planning approaches, where the challenge lies in activating and interconnecting dispersed spatial resources. Results highlight differentiated spatial potentials for public spaces and facilities, confirming that proximity planning cannot rely on a single transformation logic. At the same time, private interests and ownership emerge as critical structural constraints, emphasizing the need to explicitly integrate property conditions into computational planning tools. The study also outlines how parcel-level suitability can support a network-based interpretation of urban systems, enabling the identification of strategic nodes and connections. This work provides a foundation for future research aimed at adapting the model to different policy scenarios and integrating advanced network analytics, supporting more flexible and context-sensitive implementations of proximity-based planning.