Increasing the Robustness of the Bayesian Analysis

The reliability assessment of heritage structures represents a complex issue beyond traditional assessment procedures. Probabilistic methods and Bayesian updating techniques are often invoked in order to estimate the actual probability of failure. However a factor that should be considered is the potential bias arising with the refinement of probabilistic models. The bias may be significant if the structure has been altered during its working life and it may lead to undependable reliability assessment. In this paper a procedure that increases the robustness of the Bayesian analysis for the reliability assessment of historical buildings is presented. At the same time the process exploits probabilistic methods in order to better identify structural alteration. A practical application to a relevant case study is finally presented.