Probabilistic Seismic Assessment of Existing Masonry Buildings

The evaluation of seismic performance of existing masonry buildings is a critical issue in assessing the seismic vulnerability of the built environment. With this aim, non-linear static analysis is commonly used, but results are influenced significantly by the collapse criteria adopted, as well as by the assumptions about material properties and drift capacity of masonry walls. A methodology for the probabilistic assessment of the seismic risk index is proposed by means of an original non-linear pushover type algorithm developed by the authors. The main sources of uncertainties related to masonry parameters and their influence on seismic risk indices are identified by means of sensitivity analysis. Response surfaces for the seismic risk indices are thus defined through general polynomial chaos expansion in order to quantify the uncertainties in the resulting seismic risk index. Finally, a seismic performance classification is presented to help stakeholders to manage risks and define priorities for seismic retrofit. The methodology together with the outcomes is illustrated for a set of existing masonry buildings that are part of the school system in the Municipality of Florence.