Predictors of type 2 diabetes relapse after Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass: a ten-year follow-up study

Aims: To assess the impact of bariatric surgery on remission and relapse of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) at 10 years of follow-up and analyze predictive factors. Materials and methods: Eighty-eight obese subjects undergoing Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGB) and 25 subjects assigned to medical therapy (MT) were evaluated every year for 10 years. T2DM remission was defined by the American Diabetes Association criteria. Results: Body mass index (BMI), fasting glucose, and hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) improved more markedly in RYGB than MT patients throughout the 10-year period. Post-surgery remission rates were 74% and 53% at 1 and 10 years, respectively, while remission did not occur in MT patients. One-year post-surgery, BMI decreased more in subjects with remission than in those without, but no further decrease was observed thereafter. By partial-least-squares analysis, T2DM duration, baseline HbA1c, and ensuing insulin therapy were the strongest predictors of remission. Remission was achieved at one year in 91% of patients with T2DM duration < 4 years, and 79% of them remained in remission at 10 years. On the contrary only 42% of patients with T2DM duration ≥ 4 years achieved remission, which was maintained only in 6% at the end of 10 years. By survival analysis, patients with T2DM duration < 4 years had higher remission rates than those with duration ≥ 4 years (hazards ratio (HR) 3.1 [95%CI 1.8-5.7]). Relapse did not occur before two years post-surgery and was much less frequent in patients with < 4- vs ≥ 4-year duration (HR 11.8 [4.9-29.4]). Conclusions: Short T2DM duration and good glycemic control before RYGB surgery were the best requisites for a long-lasting T2DM remission, whereas weight loss had no impact on the long-term relapse of T2DM.