In this work, we propose a data driven trajectory forecasting algorithm that utilizes both recorded historical and streaming trajectory observations. The algorithm performs Bayesian inference on a directed graph the walks on which represent stochastic change point models of trajectory classes. Parameter distributions of these models are learnt from recorded trajectories. Forecasting is then made by calculating the class - or, walk- probabilities and corresponding predictive distributions for a given stream of location and velocity observations. This approach is tailored for the maritime domain and automatic identification system (AIS) data exploitation through the use of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven stochastic process model that captures vessel motion characteristics. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach on a real data set.

Data Driven Vessel Trajectory Forecasting Using Stochastic Generative Models

Millefiori L. M.;Braca P.
2019-01-01

Abstract

In this work, we propose a data driven trajectory forecasting algorithm that utilizes both recorded historical and streaming trajectory observations. The algorithm performs Bayesian inference on a directed graph the walks on which represent stochastic change point models of trajectory classes. Parameter distributions of these models are learnt from recorded trajectories. Forecasting is then made by calculating the class - or, walk- probabilities and corresponding predictive distributions for a given stream of location and velocity observations. This approach is tailored for the maritime domain and automatic identification system (AIS) data exploitation through the use of an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven stochastic process model that captures vessel motion characteristics. We demonstrate the efficacy of this approach on a real data set.
2019
978-1-4799-8131-1
File in questo prodotto:
Non ci sono file associati a questo prodotto.

I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.

Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11568/1144017
 Attenzione

Attenzione! I dati visualizzati non sono stati sottoposti a validazione da parte dell'ateneo

Citazioni
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.pmc??? ND
  • Scopus 19
  • ???jsp.display-item.citation.isi??? 16
social impact