Relationship between weather and changes in annual and seasonal abundance of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta

Factors influencing annual and seasonal abundance of Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth and Jones) (Diptera; Ceratopogonidae) were examined at 10 sites in southern Alberta using negative binomial regression. Annual abundance varied among locations with greatest abundance in a narrow geographic band between -112.166 and -112.641°W longitude and 49.324 and 50.165°N latitude. Sites were grouped depending on whether abundance was continuous and high; discontinuous and low; or sporadic and low without much loss of information. Maximum annual abundance declined with spring precipitation, increased with spring temperature, and was unrelated to spring relative humidity, suggesting that abundance is highest during years with early drought conditions. Seasonal abundance was associated with the same factors but was further influenced by temperature and relative humidity during the sample intervals. Lagged effects were apparent, suggesting abundance increased with warmer temperatures over a six-week period, and increased when relative humidity declined closer to the sampling period. Predicted values were slightly biased and tended to overestimate observed data, but this could be adjusted using calibration curves. The model can also be used to predict presence/absence of C. sonorensis and will be useful for developing risk assessments.