A computational modelling approach to reconstruct the fluvial system of the floodplain of Lucca in the Roman period

During antiquity, the floodplain of Lucca was crossed by numerous branches of the Auser river. Scholars recognised several paleo-channels in the area and proposed different possible paths of the river during the Roman period, relying on the study of place names and documentary sources, on the observation of Lucca’s urban plan, on remote sensing, and archaeological excavations. Far from proposing a conclusive reconstruction of Lucca’s ancient landscape, this research complements other studies and contributes to strengthening our knowledge of the paleo-fluvial system of the plain. This study aims to test a new methodology – based on logistic regression modelling – for assigning traces of paleo-channels to a given period based on selected geomorphological and archaeological variables.