Modelling Approach for NBSs Suitability Assessment in an Agricultural Area under Changing Climate Conditions: Case Studies in the Massaciuccoli Catchment (Central Italy)

Nature-Based Solutions (NBSs) are considered worldwide as a suitable approach for mitigating the impact of industrial agriculture on sediments and nutrient losses. However, their actual effectiveness is still questioned. In cases where site measurements of NBS performance are scarce, models can provide useful insights if accurately set. This study analyzed the effects of vegetated buffer strips (VBSs) and winter cover crops (WCCs) planted in some herbaceous cropping systems within the Massaciuccoli reclamation area (Vecchiano, Central Italy). Analyses stem from modelling water and soil dynamics by applying SWAT+ at field scale on high resolution close-range photogrammetric digital terrain model (DTM), real crop rotations, and a detailed calendar of the main agronomic interventions. The NBS implementation was modelled in two experimental areas, showing contrasting soil properties. Comparing results from the modelling of different scenarios highlighted that NBS mitigative effect is influenced by soil properties and local topographic irregularities, which could induce concentrated flows. Long term climate changes can induce relevant different effects by varying the nature of soil.