Near-Linear Orbit Uncertainty Propagation Using the Generalized Equinoctial Orbital Elements

This paper addresses the problem of minimizing the impact of nonlinearities when dealing with uncertainty propagation in the perturbed two-body problem. The recently introduced generalized equinoctial orbital elements set is employed as a means to reduce nonlinear effects stemming from J2 and higher-order gravity field harmonics. The uncertainty propagation performance of the proposed set of elements in different Earth orbit scenarios, including low-thrust orbit raising, is evaluated using a Cramér–von Mises test on the Mahalanobis distance of the uncertainty distribution. A considerable improvement compared to all sets of elements proposed so far is obtained.