Traffic route analysis and prediction are both crucial to maritime security. The ability to predict a vessel position in the future is essential to provide information on upcoming events. However, accurate prediction along a route is a challenging task in the maritime domain, due to the complex nature and variability of traffic patterns.Based on the popular Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic mean-reverting processes, a novel method has been recently presented that enables the accurate prediction of future positions of a vessel under the hypothesis that it is following an established traffic pattern in the area.We present a large-scale extensive validation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck methodology applied to target predictions along routes in the maritime domain for several classes of vessel. This validation was done using a real-world dataset recorded in the Mediterranean Sea by a network of Automatic Identification System (AIS) receivers.
Validation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Route Propagation Model in the Mediterranean Sea
Millefiori, LM;Braca, P;
2015-01-01
Abstract
Traffic route analysis and prediction are both crucial to maritime security. The ability to predict a vessel position in the future is essential to provide information on upcoming events. However, accurate prediction along a route is a challenging task in the maritime domain, due to the complex nature and variability of traffic patterns.Based on the popular Ornstein-Uhlenbeck stochastic mean-reverting processes, a novel method has been recently presented that enables the accurate prediction of future positions of a vessel under the hypothesis that it is following an established traffic pattern in the area.We present a large-scale extensive validation of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck methodology applied to target predictions along routes in the maritime domain for several classes of vessel. This validation was done using a real-world dataset recorded in the Mediterranean Sea by a network of Automatic Identification System (AIS) receivers.I documenti in IRIS sono protetti da copyright e tutti i diritti sono riservati, salvo diversa indicazione.