Europe's reinforced concrete structures: Corrosion rates in a changing climate

The long-term deterioration of reinforced concrete (RC) structures poses a significant challenge to their strength and serviceability, with steel reinforcement corrosion being the primary degradation mechanism. Corrosion is a complex process highly influenced by climatic conditions, making the prediction of corrosion rates under changing climate scenarios crucial for reliable service life assessments of ageing RC structures. In particular, increasing global temperatures due to climate change are expected to accelerate deterioration, promoting steel corrosion and increasing its rate. This study presents a predictive analysis of corrosion rate variations using a multi-model ensemble of daily climate projections under different future scenarios, incorporating existing knowledge on temperature dependency in corrosion models. A European-scale map illustrating the impact of climate change on corrosion rates is developed and analyzed, highlighting a significant increase in corrosion rates that will critically affect the durability and serviceability of RC structures and infrastructure.