Probabilistic Analysis of Thermal Stresses in Architectural Marble Elements for Effective Strengthening

Assessing the structural safety of complex and degraded decorative elements in cultural heritage buildings presents significant challenges, primarily due to limited knowledge of both the mechanical behaviour of existing materials and the impact of environmental factors. Among these, temperature is widely recognized as a key factor influencing both material properties and structural integrity, particularly in the statically indeterminate configurations of embedded artistic assets. This study focuses on the four-light marble windows sequence in Pisa Monumental Cemetery. The primary objective is to develop an effective intervention strategy to preserve artistic value and ensure visitor safety. To this end, structural and thermal analyses are conducted to simulate both the current state and post-intervention configurations. A probabilistic approach is adopted to consider uncertainties related to the marble's thermal expansion coefficient and the daily surface temperature variations.