The configuration of urban form: Morphogenetic and configurational analysis for identifying 15-Minutes city opportunities for densification

The Evolutive Meshed Compact City (emc2) model aim to operationalize the 15-minute city concept transforming suburban and peripheral low-density areas – predominantly residential and highly car-dependent – into pedestrian-oriented, compact urban environments through the enhancement of main streets: vibrant and inclusive spaces where a diverse mix of services, activities, and multimodal connecting networks take place. In particular, this study captures potential for densification in suburban areas by identifying historical filaments embodying main streets spatial characteristics. The methodology, applied to the case study of Massa (Tuscany, Italy), unfolds in four key phases: (1) a historical analysis determining key moments in the settlement evolution; (2) a historical cartographic redrawing to reconstruct the infrastructural network and the built environment across significant temporal snapshots; (3) diachronic comparative configurational analyses assessing shifts in centrality over time and identifying historical centralities with latent potential for densification under the emc2 model; and (4) the application of Kemeny-Based Centrality measures to validate the fragments with the potential to function as main streets. The findings demonstrate that integrating historical and configurational analysis uncovers intrinsic spatial predispositions for sustainable transformation towards walkable suburban structures, and underscore the potential of configurational techniques as a valid data-driven complement to existing planning instruments.