Operational decision making in the face of uncertainty

High level military decision making is often conducted under time pressure, stressful conditions and uncertainty in the information. It remains a human intensive process. Maritime operations can be characterized generally as consisting of a surveillance phase and an intervention phase. The intervention phase develops a course of action based on an analysis of the data and information collected the surveillance phase. However, the amount of data and information that is collected, produced and presented to an operator has increased greatly in recent years. In general, an individual does not have the ability to cope with this amount of information in an efficient manner and make timely operational decisions. A key element of the NURC research strategy is developing new computational technologies and tools to assist operators to comprehend available information and make the best decisions. The focus is on using information and sensor fusion, knowledge management, and other information management tools to assist decision making. An important aspect of using uncertainty in decision making is to quantify what we know and what we don’t know and to present this in a Human-Machine Interface (HMI) in a straight forward and meaningful manner to the decision maker. Examples from ongoing work in Anti-Submarine Warfare (ASW), Mine Counter Measures (MCM), Maritime Surveillance Awareness (MSA) and environmental support will be presented.