Mutamenti delle condizioni dell’offerta aggregata in Italia: un approccio VAR cointegrato all’analisi macroeconomica del mercato del lavoro

The purpose of this paper is to identify some changes of the aggregate supply conditions in Italy from the seventies to the end of the nineties of the last century. Based on a VAR model for wages, prices, productivity, unemployment and exchange rate the cointegration properties of the data in nominal and real terms are analysed. The analysis is based on a model directly derived from the work of Modigliani and Padoa Schioppa (1977). Our results provide a confirmation of the assumption that a prominent change took place in the Italian macroeconomic system at the beginning of the eighties. The empirical model presented also allows for an assessment of how the characteristics of the Phillips curve evolved during the three decades considered. Moreover it is possible to underscore the process whereby real wages were made increasingly flexible during the 1980s and 1990s.