Alpine areas, especially those at the highest elevations, are particularly sensitive to climatic changes inducing relevant modifications in the cryosphere extension and occurrence, as well as in frequency and intensity of slope processes. We present results of a multitemporal analysis of slope processes conducted in a high mountain area by applying a method traditionally used for landslide susceptibility assessment, with the aim of defining the proneness to debris flow occurrence. The study area is the Avio valley (Adamello-Presanella Massif, Central Alps), among the main tributary valleys of Valcamonica, which has recorded Late Glacial and Holocene glacial fluctuations, and, more recently, the glacial retreat following the Little Ice Age. In the newly forming climatic-environmental condition, the active geomorphic agents are affecting recently deglaciated areas, older glacial and slope deposits, clearly increasing instability processes. The multitemporal analysis of slope processes, and in particular of debris flows, started from a geomorphologic map surveyed in 1985, and was updated with aerial photographs (1994 and 2006). All data were organized in a geomorphologic database in GIS environment. The susceptibility evaluation method furnishes an unbiased procedure for causal factor selection based on some intuitive statistical indices, aimed at detecting among different potential factors the most discriminant ones in the study area. Conditional analysis allows to determine the susceptibility index value for a combination of selected causal factors (or vUCU, vector Unique Condition Units). The multitemporal debris flow database allowed the validation of the obtained susceptibility model, in which many areas estimated as highly susceptible coincide with the area actually affected by debris flows in the period following that considered for the susceptibility evaluation, giving rise to encouraging results.

Debris flow susceptibility assessment in the Avio Valley (Adamello-Presanella Massif, central Alps) through multitemporal and conditional analysis

SALVATORE, MARIA CRISTINA;BARONI, CARLO;
2013

Abstract

Alpine areas, especially those at the highest elevations, are particularly sensitive to climatic changes inducing relevant modifications in the cryosphere extension and occurrence, as well as in frequency and intensity of slope processes. We present results of a multitemporal analysis of slope processes conducted in a high mountain area by applying a method traditionally used for landslide susceptibility assessment, with the aim of defining the proneness to debris flow occurrence. The study area is the Avio valley (Adamello-Presanella Massif, Central Alps), among the main tributary valleys of Valcamonica, which has recorded Late Glacial and Holocene glacial fluctuations, and, more recently, the glacial retreat following the Little Ice Age. In the newly forming climatic-environmental condition, the active geomorphic agents are affecting recently deglaciated areas, older glacial and slope deposits, clearly increasing instability processes. The multitemporal analysis of slope processes, and in particular of debris flows, started from a geomorphologic map surveyed in 1985, and was updated with aerial photographs (1994 and 2006). All data were organized in a geomorphologic database in GIS environment. The susceptibility evaluation method furnishes an unbiased procedure for causal factor selection based on some intuitive statistical indices, aimed at detecting among different potential factors the most discriminant ones in the study area. Conditional analysis allows to determine the susceptibility index value for a combination of selected causal factors (or vUCU, vector Unique Condition Units). The multitemporal debris flow database allowed the validation of the obtained susceptibility model, in which many areas estimated as highly susceptible coincide with the area actually affected by debris flows in the period following that considered for the susceptibility evaluation, giving rise to encouraging results.
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11568/231188
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