The theoretical framework used to analyze fixed exchange rate crises is shown to apply also to external debt crises. As a result, in both cases it is possible to identify three separate regions of the state of economic fundamentals: one of stability, one of instability and an intermediate “gray” region subject to multiple equilibria. In the case of external debt crises, however, expectations may even change the state of economic fundamentals in a self-fulfilling way through the effect they exert on interest rates.
Currency and external debt crises: A unifying framework
DELLA POSTA, POMPEO
2016-01-01
Abstract
The theoretical framework used to analyze fixed exchange rate crises is shown to apply also to external debt crises. As a result, in both cases it is possible to identify three separate regions of the state of economic fundamentals: one of stability, one of instability and an intermediate “gray” region subject to multiple equilibria. In the case of external debt crises, however, expectations may even change the state of economic fundamentals in a self-fulfilling way through the effect they exert on interest rates.File in questo prodotto:
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Post-print- Journal of Policy ModelingCurrency and External Debt Crises.pdf
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