A short term simulator for vessel manoeuvres prediction

This paper presents a methodology for vessels manoeuvring prediction during navigation. The proposed algorithm allows to estimate future position and heading of the vessel on the basis of present position, velocity, propeller speed and rudder angle. The prediction algorithm, which can be very useful in emergency manoeuvres, uses a short term simulator which has been tuned up and validated in the framework of the Costa Concordia cruise ship trial. However, the methodology could be applied to any kind of ship, since it just requires a set of data recorded during a set of mandatory sea trials performed before the delivery of the ship. The prediction algorithm shows, on the electronic navigation chart, the foreseen position of the ship in the next 30–40 s, provided that helm and power settings remain unchanged, allowing the helmsman to check in advance the effect of the commands and to eventually modify the trajectory.