The impact of climate change on Hypericum elodes L. (Hypericaceae) distribution: Predicting future trends and identifying priorities

The Impact of Climate Change on Hypericum elodes L. (Hypericaceae) distribution: Predicting Future Trends and Identifying Priorities. In this study the present and future predicted distribution of the Atlantic-European soft-water pools specialist Hypericum elodes L. (Hypericaceae) is modelled in order to facilitate appropriate decision making for conservation, monitoring and future research. Using the methods of Maximum Entropy the future distribution has been examined with the HadCM3 climate model over the year 2050. H. elodes is confirmed as a climate-sensitive species, with a W-European distribution and preferences for acid substrates. The model shows a marked negative influence of climate change on H. elodes. In a locality analysis the outcome is a c. 58% reduction in the number of pre-existing bioclimatically suitable localities by 2050. In an area analysis the outcome is a 57% reduction in suitable bioclimatic space by 2050. This study establishes a fundamental baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change on populations of H. elodes. Specifically, it: (1) identifies and categorizes localities and areas that are predicted to be under threat from climate change now and in the medium term (2050), representing assessment priorities for ex situ conservation; (2) identifies 'core localities' that could have the potential to withstand climate change until at least 2050, and therefore serve as long-term in situ stocks for H. elodes genetic resources.