In this work, using the MIND (Micro-Italy-National-Dynamics) model, we will evaluate the distributional impact of the demographic evolution and different social security reforms over a simulation period of 50 years from 1996 up to 20457. Starting from the SHIW (see Banca d’Italia, 1997) data, we build alternative samples and use them: (a) to validate and simulate the evolution of demographic (marriages, births, etc.), economic (incomes) and fiscal (income tax revenue) variables and (b) to analyse their impact on inequality and poverty trends. In particular, a key role is played by (i) the correct specification of the demographic structure of the population, considering different geographical areas, since changes in the demographic structure modify the framework within which retirement security programs operate and (ii) the use of a behavioural retirement function based on the option value of retirement (Stock and Wise, 1990), to examine individual reactions to changes in eligibility rules and economic treatments. The paper is organised as follows. In section 2 we describe the structure of the model, its modules, their interrelations and the basic hypotheses that we adopted. Section 3 discusses validation experiments on MIND’s inputs and outputs; for this purpose, we consider the demographic and economic trends (i.e. incomes from 1996 to 1999), comparing our results with national accounts tables and with IRP (Institute for Research on Population) forecasts from 1996 to 2045 (Golini et al., 1995). In section 4, using a Monte Carlo experiment, we study the consequences of social security reforms on inequality and poverty, under alternative the demographic-evolutions. Section 5 concludes with some final remarks on the relevance of dynamic microsimulation modelling.

Demographic evolution of inequality among families of pensioners in Italy: microsimulating regional dynamics

BIANCHI, CARLO LUIGI
2004-01-01

Abstract

In this work, using the MIND (Micro-Italy-National-Dynamics) model, we will evaluate the distributional impact of the demographic evolution and different social security reforms over a simulation period of 50 years from 1996 up to 20457. Starting from the SHIW (see Banca d’Italia, 1997) data, we build alternative samples and use them: (a) to validate and simulate the evolution of demographic (marriages, births, etc.), economic (incomes) and fiscal (income tax revenue) variables and (b) to analyse their impact on inequality and poverty trends. In particular, a key role is played by (i) the correct specification of the demographic structure of the population, considering different geographical areas, since changes in the demographic structure modify the framework within which retirement security programs operate and (ii) the use of a behavioural retirement function based on the option value of retirement (Stock and Wise, 1990), to examine individual reactions to changes in eligibility rules and economic treatments. The paper is organised as follows. In section 2 we describe the structure of the model, its modules, their interrelations and the basic hypotheses that we adopted. Section 3 discusses validation experiments on MIND’s inputs and outputs; for this purpose, we consider the demographic and economic trends (i.e. incomes from 1996 to 1999), comparing our results with national accounts tables and with IRP (Institute for Research on Population) forecasts from 1996 to 2045 (Golini et al., 1995). In section 4, using a Monte Carlo experiment, we study the consequences of social security reforms on inequality and poverty, under alternative the demographic-evolutions. Section 5 concludes with some final remarks on the relevance of dynamic microsimulation modelling.
Vagliasindi, P.; Romanelli, M.; Bianchi, CARLO LUIGI
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Utilizza questo identificativo per citare o creare un link a questo documento: https://hdl.handle.net/11568/86991
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