Simulating the effect of climatic variations on the long-term performance of different agroforestry systems within field trials using virtual experiments

Agroforestry systems can reduce some of the adverse effects of climate change in agriculture by e.g. serving as a windbreak or shade provider to protect crops or grazing livestock and supporting beneficial species for pest control. The prediction of the long-term performance of different agroforestry options is however difficult to obtain through field quantify experiments due to the length of time trees grow for experiments. Numerical modelling can contribute to a better understanding of a system’s performance, since the effect of different climatic alterations can be tested using virtual experiments for different periods of time. Within the Horizon 2020 AGROMIX project, we are analysing the long-term performance of eight different agroforestry trials (Figure 1), using different modelling approaches. The trials are spread over three biogeographic regions (Mediterranean, Continental, and Atlantic) and are of varying age (4 to 33 years). In total, six silvoarable and five silvopastoral farming systems are maintained at the eight field trials. Through the use of different numerical models the effect of changes in temperature and precipitation patterns or the occurrence of extreme events such as droughts or late spring frost on the different agroforestry systems will be predicted. Additionally, experimental data on crop performance as well as animal behaviour and welfare, in particular under heat stress, are being obtained and will potentially be included in the model predictions. This poster aims to give an overview on the field trials and the numerical modelling approaches that are being applied to predict long-term system performance.