Young people between education and the labour market during the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy

Purpose The aim is to study the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the careers of different groups of young individuals, based on transition probabilities. Design/methodology/approach The authors analyse the evolution of individual shares and flows between different types of employment (self-employment, temporary, and permanent), unemployment, education, and other types of inactivity of individuals aged 20-29 in Italy. Findings The authors find that the pandemic worsened an already concerning situation of higher inactivity rates, compared to other EU countries. In quarters III and IV of 2020, mainly females and non-Italian citizens were less in (permanent and temporary) employment and more in the NLFET (neither in the labour force nor in education or training) state compared to the same quarters one year before. The authors also find evidence of a temporary but not persistent return to education among 20-24 years old individuals, particularly females. These changes are suggestive of a prolongation of the time needed to achieve temporary and permanent employment, mostly for females and non-Italian citizens. Originality/value The contribution lies in the provision of a rigorous estimation and analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on the careers of young individuals in Italy.