Handling Out-of-Sample Areas to Estimate the Unemployment Rate at Local Labour Market Areas in Italy

Unemployment rate estimates for small areas are used to efficiently support the distribution of services and the allocation of resources, grants and funding. A Fay–Herriot type model is the most used tool to obtain these estimates. Under this approach out-of-sample areas require some synthetic estimates. As the geographical context is extremely important for analysing local economies, in this paper, we allow for area random effects to be spatially correlated. The spatial model parameters are estimated by a marginal likelihood method and are used to predict in-sample as well as out-of-sample areas. Extensive simulation experiments are used to assess the impact of the auto-regression parameter and of the rate of out-of-sample areas on the performance of this approach. The paper concludes with an illustrative application on real data from the Italian Labour Force Survey in which the estimation of the unemployment rate in each Local Labour Market Area is addressed.