A new methodology to evaluate the competitiveness of rail freight intermodal transport taking into account external costs

In this paper, a new methodology for the evaluation of the competitiveness of freight transport by rail is presented. The methodology is made up of: a new cost function for rail links operated by freight trains; a multiregional input–output model to assess the freight transport demand among different zones of the study area; a time-series based forecasting model for future freight transport demand; a mixed logit model, embedding also transport external costs based on CO2 emissions, to compute the modal split; a Probit model to calculate the flows. The methodology has been applied to Alpine rail passes. Three different scenarios have been considered: “current”, in which only rail lines currently in operation are present; “project”, where also rail lines under construction are taken into account; “future”, in which also planned rail lines, but not yet under construction, are considered. The assignment results show a remarkable increase of flows, in the “project” and “future” scenario, on the Brenner, Frejus and Tarvisio – Semmering lines and a decrease on Gotthard line. Gotthard is currently the dominant Alpine pass line. The prevalence of the Gotthard line is also maintained in the “project” and “future” scenarios, although there is evidence of a decrease in the freight flows and an increase in the competitiveness of the Brenner and Frejus lines. Furthermore, the methodology results show that the construction of the base tunnels and new railway lines cause a remarkable increase of rail mode against road mode: this also allows a considerable decrease in CO2 emissions.