Complexity of the relationship between global warming and urbanization – an obscure future for predicting increases in vector-borne infectious diseases

Arthropod vectors are responsible for the transmission of many infectious diseases. Currently, more than three billion people living in endemic areas are exposed to vector-borne pathogens. Substantial differences in the biology of arthropod vectors make it extremely challenging to predict the incidence of vector-borne diseases in the future. However, global warming and urbanization both profoundly affect the ecology and distribution of arthropod vectors. Such processes often result in a biotic homogenization of species in a non-random process of biodiversity loss. The data presently available indicate a trend towards progressive increases in the presence and abundance of vectors capable of thriving in urban environments amongst humans, thus, increasing the contact between vectors and human hosts. As a consequence, we expect the incidence of vector-borne diseases to increase. In our opinion, resources should be made available and directed to strategies within the Integrated Vector Management framework, focusing on proven vector control tools. Besides, a substantial reduction of IVM costs would be achieved by observing environmental guidelines and providing basic sanitary infrastructure at early stages of its development. This could help to increase IVM effectiveness in attenuating social determinants of health and social inequities due to exposure to vectors.