Reduced metabolic efficiency in sedentary eucaloric conditions predicts greater weight regain in adults with obesity following sustained weight loss

Background: Successful long-term weight loss maintenance after caloric restriction (CR) is rarely achieved. Besides known metabolic, behavioural, and cognitive factors, 24-hour energy expenditure (24hEE) relative to body size (i.e., metabolic efficiency) might influence subsequent weight loss maintenance. Methods: Eleven participants with obesity (BMI = 39.0 ± 8.7 kg/m2, body fat = 36.1 ± 6.4%) had 24hEE measured in a whole-room indirect calorimeter during eucaloric conditions and weight stability prior to starting a 6-week inpatient CR study (50% of daily energy needs). Twenty-four-hour energy expenditure was adjusted via regression analysis for fat free mass (FFM) and fat mass (FM) by DXA. Body composition was reassessed at the end of CR and after 1-year follow-up. Free-living weight was assessed by monthly weight measurements during 12 months. Results: After 6-week CR, participants lost 8.5 ± 2.7% weight (FFM: -6.3 ± 3.6 kg, FM: -3.4 ± 1.2 kg) but regained 5.1 ± 8.0% 1 year following CR, which was mostly due to FFM regain (+5.7 ± 5.5 kg) and unchanged FM. A relatively higher 24hEE by 100 kcal/day prior to CR was associated with an average greater rate of weight regain by +0.3 kg/month during follow-up and a greater final weight regain by +5.1 kg after 1 year of follow-up. Conclusion: These results suggest that reduced metabolic efficiency in 24hEE during eucaloric, sedentary conditions may predict greater weight regain after CR-induced weight loss.