Sensitivity analysis on mechanical parameters of continuum models for simulating in-plane tests on existing masonry panels

Understanding and modeling the structural behavior of existing masonry buildings is a fundamental task in view of their management and conservation, especially in seismic-prone areas. Among the different modeling approaches for the computational analysis of unreinforced masonry structures, this work investigates the ability of two material continuum models, the modified masonry-like material and Mazars’ material, to simulate real in-plane failure modes of masonry panels, considering the influence of the variability of mechanical parameters on the results. As the first part of a broader benchmark, this work focuses on the study of two recurring test patterns for masonry panels subject to both horizontal and vertical loads, given the availability of experimental data. To account for the parameter variability that typically affects masonry materials, uncertainty propagation is performed in a probabilistic framework, and a gPCE-based proxy model makes it possible to turn time-consuming numerical runs into significantly faster analytical evaluations. Sensitivity analyses are carried out in terms of Sobol’ indices to evaluate the influence of input variability on the ultimate horizontal load. The most relevant masonry parameters for each model are thus highlighted and the issue of model calibration is finally addressed by relying on Bayesian inverse methods. This work also underlines the pros and cons of the different hypotheses, which underlie the two nonlinear constitutive laws.