Climate change as main driver of centennial decline in river sediment transport across the Mediterranean region

The analysis of suspended sediment transport and of its variations over time is crucial for understanding environmental evolution and it is the key to future challenges caused by current global warming. The Mediterranean area is a hot spot for global changes, and the variation of precipitation amount and intensity will modify the environment of this region. In this work, we analyse the time series of suspended sediment transport of two rivers located in central Italy by using statistical and artificial intelligence techniques. Our study aims to re-analyze time series of suspended sediment transport, in order to demonstrate that climate change is responsible for the substantial decrease in the amount of sediment over the past century, in relation to the atmospheric teleconnections of the North Atlantic. Anthropic pressures like reforestation, land use change, and dam building have influenced the sediment transport capacity of rivers, causing a reduction of sediment concentration in water. These results are key factors to determine the future management of the Mediterranean areas, where the future scenarios predict a greater drop in yearly precipitation, and therefore a possible further decrease in the sediment transport capacity of the rivers, with major consequences for coastal and fluvial environments.