Assessing the ex-ante impact of the CAP post 2013 reform on land market. A case study in Tuscany region

Several Authors pointed-out positive effects of CAP measures on productive factors demand, driving both structural change and farm growth. Moreover, the effects of CAP on farm size and land markets are the most studied structural factors. The objective of this contribution is to conduct exante analysis of the impact of the new CAP policy instruments on the land demand and then to simulate the reform impact on land market. In particular in the paper the effect of greening payments and the introduction of regionalized payments will be investigated, through the implementation of mathematical programming model. The results of our work highlight the relevance of new CAP instrument in changing land demand. Our results can to contribute to the national debate by providing a better to understanding the potential effects of the CAP reform on the value of land and on the changes in land demand.